As discussed in my November market update, Metro Vancouver is firmly in a buyer’s market, especially for townhomes and apartments—a trend confirmed by December 2024 data.
Key points from last month:
- Home sales have surged 31.2% year-over-year over three consecutive months, continuing the trend from October and November.
- Inventory is 24.4% above the long-term average, down from 26.1% last month, indicating that excess inventory is starting to decline.
What does this mean? It means that there is currently an excess inventory of homes listed for sale, but that number is starting to decline. For as long as there is excess inventory, Metro Vancouver will likely remain a buyer’s market. However, recent trends show that home sales are now exceeding the number of new listings coming online. That is, the excess inventory of listings is being whittled down—a trend that is expected to continue with ongoing surges in sales. Once inventories return to more historical figures, the buyer’s market will end, and a seller’s market will return—with prices starting to rise again.
Other notable trends:
- The sales-to-active listings ratio for townhomes is now 23.6%, indicating upward price pressure, with townhomes having already experienced price increases of 3.4% since December 2023.
- Apartments (18.7%) are approaching seller’s market territory, while detached homes (12.1%) remain neutral.
Recall from last month, anything over 20% puts upward pressure on price.
If you are considering buying a townhome or apartment, it may be wise to act before prices rise. For detached homes, there is no immediate rush, but the market is expected to shift by summer due to relaxed lending requirements. Prudent buyers may wish to act before the impending shift (i.e. before the crowd shows up), so as to benefit from enhanced negotiating leverage. Regardless of your buying plans, the first half of 2025 will be key. I predict Metro Vancouver will transition to a seller’s market by Q3 (at the latest).