Newsletter

Let’s be real—the real estate market in Metro Vancouver has been anything but predictable lately. If you’ve been following the numbers (or, let’s be honest, trying to make sense of them), it might feel like riding a roller coaster that occasionally turns into a bit of a waiting game. But don’t worry, the ride isn’t over yet. So let’s take a look back at where we’ve been, what’s happening right now, and where we might be headed in the coming months.

A Strong Finish to 2024: The Year That Was (kind of) a Pivot

If 2024 could be summed up in one word, it would probably be “transition“. After a few years of tumultuous interest rates, a lot of buyers went into hibernation. But the latter part of 2024 saw a significant uptick in activity. Mortgage rates started to ease, which reawakened buyer interest, and we saw a burst of market activity that carried us through the tail end of the year.

While 2024 didn’t completely hit the sales numbers that analysts expected (shoutout to those pesky economic headwinds), we did end on a high note. Residential sales in Metro Vancouver finished December with a 31.2% increase compared to the same month in 2023. This was a strong signal that demand was coming back, even if it was a little delayed. Inventory also increased, and sellers became more active, responding to the market conditions with more listings. It was the kind of year-end momentum that suggested brighter days ahead for 2025.

The Start of 2025: Off to a Slower Start Than Expected

Now, fast forward to March 2025. If the final months of 2024 had us feeling like the market was finally breaking free from the shackles of high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, the beginning of 2025 has been a little more subdued. The sales numbers for March 2025 were down by 13.4% compared to March 2024, and we’re seeing a 36.8% dip from the 10-year seasonal average. Yikes, right?

So, why the slowdown? Well, the good news is that it’s not all bad news. There’s been a surge in new listings—more options for buyers, which is a welcome change after years of feeling like homes were in short supply. But here’s the kicker: Buyers just haven’t fully jumped back in yet, even though they have better borrowing conditions and more homes to choose from. It’s like we’re waiting for the light to turn green, but it already has—traffic just hasn’t started moving yet.

Why the Cautious Start?

After seven consecutive rate cuts, the mortgage rates may be lower than they were during the peak of the rate hikes, but they’re still higher than pre-pandemic levels, and that’s affecting buyer behaviour. People are being more cautious, perhaps because they’re uncertain about how sustainable these rates are or whether the economy will remain stable.

Additionally, while inventory has surged, we’re still looking at some market segments where the supply is quite low—particularly in attached homes like townhouses. So, if you’re in the market for a townhome, get ready for competition. Some parts of the market are still leaning towards a seller’s market, just not as broadly as we’ve seen in the past.

What’s Next? The Optimism is Still There

Here’s the good news: We’re not in a market crisis. Despite the slow start to 2025, we still have a solid foundation to build on. Mortgage rates are lower, we have more homes listed than we’ve seen in years, and the demand for housing is still there—just waiting for the right moment to make its move.

In fact, this early 2025 lull could be the perfect time for buyers to get a bit of an edge. With the number of active listings up, there’s more choice available. It’s like having more cookies on the shelf, but fewer people grabbing them. If you’re patient and strategic, this could be the moment to make your move.

Sellers, Take Heart

For those thinking about selling, the market is still favourable—just not as crazy as the past few years. You might not be seeing bidding wars like in 2021, but with more inventory, you’re still in a position to attract the right buyer, especially if your home is priced well. Detached homes are still holding their value, and despite some overall market cooling, price stability is good news for sellers who are serious about making the move.

In Summary: The Road Ahead Looks Brighter, Just Not Immediate

So, where are we headed? In short, we’re in a balanced market, with more supply than we’ve seen in years and a real opportunity for buyers ready to take advantage of favourable mortgage rates. However, the market isn’t going to explode back into the kind of red-hot frenzy we saw a few years ago. We’re in a period of stabilization—and that’s a good thing. The market is adjusting, and that gives both buyers and sellers an opportunity to find a sweet spot.

The momentum from 2024 is still here, just waiting for the next wave of buyers and sellers to make their moves. While the market started off strong in 2025, the sudden announcement of tariffs and retaliatory measures have momentarily stalled the trajectory we were on. But don’t forget—tariffs are temporary. If trade relations normalize (and they very well could), we’ll quickly find ourselves back on that solid upward path.

Now’s the time to act, before everyone else jumps back in when conditions improve. Think of it like planting a seed before the rainstorm: If you wait until the downpour hits, you’ll miss the perfect moment for growth. To borrow an analogy from Bobby Axelrod in Billions, “The bullet train is leaving the station, and either you’re on it, or you’re watching it go by.” If you’re a buyer right now, the station is open, and the train is waiting—make sure you’re on it when it takes off.

PS: For those wondering, the actual quote from Axe is: “… In 10 seconds, the bullet train leaves. And if you wanna make money, climb the f*** aboard.”

I get it—when people hear “Surrey,” their first reaction is often skepticism. Maybe you’ve heard the stereotypes, or maybe you just haven’t taken a closer look lately. But here’s the thing: Surrey Central is undergoing one of the most significant transformations in Metro Vancouver, and smart investors are already taking notice. Let’s break down why this could be one of the best real estate opportunities right now.

1. Unmatched Growth & Development

• Fastest-growing city in B.C. – Surrey is projected to surpass Vancouver as BC’s most populated city by 2029, driving demand for housing, business, and infrastructure.

• Massive infrastructure investments – Billions of dollars are pouring into projects like the UBC Surrey campus, SFU expansion, and the 16km SkyTrain extension to Langley, transforming the area into a critical hub of accessibility and opportunity.

2. High Demand & Low Vacancy Rates

• A transit-connected urban center – Surrey Central’s access to SkyTrain and bus routes makes it a prime location for students, professionals, and families.

• Exceptionally low vacancy rates – With rental demand consistently exceeding the available supply in this rapidly growing area, vacancy rates hover around 1%. Investors can expect intense competition for rental properties, ensuring reliable rental income and strong long-term appreciation.

• Higher turnover student tenants – By 2030, Surrey Central is expected to host over 28,000 post-secondary students, ensuring that landlords can increase rental income in tandem with market rates, all without the concern of regulatory red tape.

• More affordable than Vancouver – Condo prices in this area remain substantially lower—approximately 36% less than downtown Vancouver—offering greater potential for future growth and delivering stronger returns.

3. Crime Perception vs. Reality

• A city in transformation – Like any urban center, Surrey has had its challenges, but redevelopment, increased policing, and gentrification are actively improving the area.

• New luxury developments & public spaces – The skyline is evolving with high-end residential towers, modern retail spaces, and community-driven initiatives that are reshaping Surrey Central into a vibrant, safer community.

4. The Advantage of Presale Investments

• Lower upfront costs – Presale condos allow investors to secure units with flexible deposit structures that spread out payments.

• Market appreciation while you wait – Buy at today’s prices and watch your investment grow even before the building is complete.

• Exclusive early access – Developers offer incentives and first-choice units to early buyers, making presales an attractive option.

5. The “Vancouver Alternative”

• A high-return market with lower entry costs – While Vancouver’s prices remain out of reach for many, Surrey Central offers strong appreciation potential at a fraction of the cost.

• Growing demand from priced-out buyers & renters – As affordability challenges drive people to seek more affordable options, Surrey’s real estate market is rapidly gaining momentum. With its relatively lower prices and strong demand, Surrey is expected to be more inflation-resistant than other areas, offering stability and potential for long-term growth during more uncertain economic times.

Bottom Line: This Isn’t a Risk—It’s an Opportunity.

Surrey Central is on the rise, and the window to invest before prices climb further won’t stay open forever. If you’ve written Surrey off in the past, it’s time to take a fresh look.

Want to hear more about a perfect opportunity in Surrey Central to secure a brand-new presale unit for under $1,000/sqft? Let’s chat about 102+Park by Marcon.

As discussed in my November market update, Metro Vancouver is firmly in a buyer’s market, especially for townhomes and apartments—a trend confirmed by December 2024 data.

Key points from last month:

• Home sales have surged 31.2% year-over-year over three consecutive months, continuing the trend from October and November.
• Inventory is 24.4% above the long-term average, down from 26.1% last month, indicating that excess inventory is starting to decline.

What does this mean? It means that there is currently an excess inventory of homes listed for sale, but that number is starting to decline. For as long as there is excess inventory, Metro Vancouver will likely remain a buyer’s market. However, recent trends show that home sales are now exceeding the number of new listings coming online. That is, the excess inventory of listings is being whittled down—a trend that is expected to continue with ongoing surges in sales. Once inventories return to more historical figures, the buyer’s market will end, and a seller’s market will return—with prices starting to rise again.

Other notable trends:

• The sales-to-active listings ratio for townhomes is now 23.6%, indicating upward price pressure, with townhomes having already experienced price increases of 3.4% since December 2023.
• Apartments (18.7%) are approaching seller’s market territory, while detached homes (12.1%) remain neutral.

Recall from last month, anything over 20% puts upward pressure on price.

If you are considering buying a townhome or apartment, it may be wise to act before prices rise. For detached homes, there is no immediate rush, but the market is expected to shift by summer due to relaxed lending requirements. Prudent buyers may wish to act before the impending shift (i.e. before the crowd shows up), so as to benefit from enhanced negotiating leverage. Regardless of your buying plans, the first half of 2025 will be key. I predict Metro Vancouver will transition to a seller’s market by Q3 (at the latest).